Brexit is the impending divorce of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). In the referendum on 23 June 2016, 51.9% voted to leave the EU, out of a turnout of 72.2%. On 29 March 2017, the UK government invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union. The UK is due to leave the EU at 11 pm on 29 March 2019 UTC.
Brexit had a big impact on UK high value investor visas under the tier1 points based scheme. Many wealthy and rich families apply for residency in the UK under this scheme investing £2 million pounds.
- In Oct 2014, the Home office increased the investment threshold from £1m to £2m (see the number of visas plunge in graph below).
- On 23 June 2016 UK voted for Brexit.
Many anticipated the demand for UK high value visas would fall, but statistics show otherwise. Infact the Brexit contributed to increase in entry clearance visas under the tier1 investor scheme. Why?
- United Kingdom is still the most popular country for wealthy and rich investors, irrespective of Brexit.
- The falling value of pound makes it cheaper to invest in the UK.
- Investors prefer ease of doing business from London
According to UK Home office statistics, a total of 3,805 tier1 investor visas issued by the UK since the start in 2008.
- The Tier1 applications plunged by 89% (471 to 51) when the Home office announced the threshold increase to £2m.
- Brexit helped the tier1 investor visas soar by 82.5% (40 to 73)
| Q1 2014 | 213 |
| Q2 2014 | 251 |
| Q3 2014 | 237 |
| Q4 2014 | 471 |
| I N C R E A S E 2 M | |
| Q1 2015 | 51 |
| Q2 2015 | 43 |
| Q3 2015 | 46 |
| Q4 2015 | 46 |
| Q1 2016 | 43 |
| Q2 2016 | 40 |
| B R E X I T | |
| Q3 2016 | 73 |
| Q4 2016 | 61 |
| Q1 2017 | 75 |
| Q2 2017 | 85 |
| Q3 2017 | 114 |
| Q4 2017 | 81 |
| Q1 2018 | 96 |
The number of applications from China and Russia nearly doubled in the quarter immediately after the brexit
Myth: Brexit caused windfall of investor visa applications (tier 1)
Reality: We have proved using statistics that brexit helped investor visas soar by 82%.
Myth: Home office decision to increase £1m to £2m, caused the tier1 applications plunge by 89%.
The fall of applications after the Home office increase from £1m to £2m is just a mathematical anomaly. The number of investor visas plunged from 471 to 51 (89%). This can be explained like this: Lets say a shop sells a candy for $1 and days later price increased to $2. 10 children bought $1 candy before, but only 5 children bought $2 candy. It is not logical to say the sale of candy plunged 50%. The shop received $10 selling at $1 and also received $10 by selling at $2 price, so no loss at price increase. Lets apply this analogy to UK visas
In case of UK investor visas, the total investment into the UK is 471 x 1m = 471m in Q4 2014. In the next quarter after the price increase, 51 x 2m = 102m, yes the investment into plunged by £369m pounds (78%) because of the Home office decision, the investment into the UK plunged through tier1.
Answer is 78%.
Tier1 Main Applicants by Country
| Sum – PBS – Tier 1 Investors (Main apps) |
||||||||||||||||||
| Country of nationality | 2014 Q1 | 2014 Q2 | 2014 Q3 | 2014 Q4 | 2015 Q1 | 2015 Q2 | 2015 Q3 | 2015 Q4 | 2016 Q1 | 2016 Q2 | 2016 Q3 | 2016 Q4 | 2017 Q1 | 2017 Q2 | 2017 Q3 | 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | Total Result |
| China | 85 | 102 | 121 | 254 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 24 | 22 | 27 | 26 | 39 | 24 | 28 | 1278 |
| Russia | 46 | 72 | 43 | 69 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 8 | 815 |
| United States | 13 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 187 |
| Hong Kong | 10 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 132 |
| India | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 82 |
| Canada | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 75 |
| Pakistan | 1 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 73 |
| Kazakhstan | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 72 |
| Egypt | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 66 |
| Australia | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 64 |
| Turkey | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 62 |
| Brazil | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 60 |
| Iran | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 60 |
| Ukraine | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 56 |
| Saudi Arabia | 4 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 55 |
| Israel | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 44 |
| Malaysia | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 42 |
| Nigeria | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 38 |
| Iraq | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 37 |
| Azerbaijan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 35 |
| Japan | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 35 |
| South Africa | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 35 |
| Taiwan | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 29 |
| Singapore | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 26 |
| Afghanistan | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| St. Kitts and Nevis | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 24 |
| Lebanon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| Jordan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| Libya | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Korea (South) | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Mexico | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Yemen | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 |
| Bangladesh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Kuwait | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Macau | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| New Zealand | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Belarus | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Georgia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| Dominica | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Syria | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Thailand | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Venezuela | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Tanzania | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| United Arab Emirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Qatar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| Argentina | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Armenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Kenya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Mauritius | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Philippines | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Sudan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Uzbekistan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Vietnam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Bahrain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Croatia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Occupied Palestinian Territories | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Algeria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ghana | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nepal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Oman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Seychelles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Zimbabwe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Albania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Belize | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Botswana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Burma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameroon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dominican Republic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eritrea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Honduras | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Moldova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mongolia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Montenegro | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Morocco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Niger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sri Lanka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tunisia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
