Antigua and Barbuda is projected to achieve highest GDP growth in 2020 among five other CBI countries, according to the latest ECLAC report published for the Latin America and Caribbean.
The report mentioned strong tourism growth, construction activity and CBI inflows were major contributors for GDP growth.
| Annual GDP Growth | 2019 (est) | 2020 (proj) |
| Antigua | 6.2 | 6.5 |
| Dominica | 9 | 4.9 |
| Grenada | 3.3 | 4 |
| St Kitts and Nevis | 3 | 3.5 |
| Saint Lucia | 2 | 3.2 |
Source: ECLAC annual GDP growth
The report said continued strong performance of the tourism, construction and ancillary sectors, as well as inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) driven by the member states’ CBI programs, are expected to underpin this expansion in economic activity, said the preliminary overview report published for ECCU.
Further, construction activity increased across all ECCU economies in the first six month of 2019, particularly in Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica and Saint Kitts and Nevis. Driven by growth in CBI inflows, private construction activity focused on hotels and tourism-related projects
The robust performance of the tourism sector, as well as the Citizenship by Investment (CBI) programs and public sector construction activity, were the primary drivers of ECCU-wide GDP growth in 2019, with Dominica (9.0%), Antigua and Barbuda (6.2%) and Grenada (3.3%) projected to be among the fastest growing economies in the Caribbean.
CBI receipts were a major contribution to the overall fiscal surplus of 191.5 million in Saint Kitts and Nevis. Increased tax and non-tax revenues buoyed government current income during the first half of 2019, with higher non-tax revenues driven by CBI inflows. For example, CBI collections in Saint Kitts and Nevis increased by 54.2% in the first six months of 2019, said the report
St Kitts and Nevis has the lowest gross public debt at 39% while Dominica had 71% debt among Caribbean countries for 2019
Tourism
With respect to the tourism sector, total arrivals increased during the first half of 2019, as both cruise ship passenger and stopover numbers trended upwards. Moreover, stopovers increased in Dominica (threefold), Saint Kitts and Nevis (11.9%), Antigua and Barbuda (11.2%), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (7.7%), Grenada (3.8%) and Saint Lucia (2%).
On average, cruise ship visitors account for more than 70% of total visitor arrivals to ECCU countries and, during the review period, cruise ship visitor numbers were up in Dominica (sevenfold increase), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (6.5%), Saint Lucia (1.0%) and Grenada (0.4%). With regard to three major source markets, stopover arrivals from the United States, the Caribbean and the United Kingdom all increased during the first half of 2019. The number of arrivals from Canada also expanded.
Total year-on-year tourist spend rose by 18% (to EC$ 1.36 billion) during the first quarter of 2019. .
As with Antigua, the report said the tourism campaign and additional direct flights from New York, Miami and North Carolina were scheduled, and the Royalton Antigua and the Hammock Cove Resorts and Spas both opened. Collectively, these initiatives all contributed to a 10% increase in stopover arrivals in Antigua and Barbuda as of the end of September 2019
The full ECLAC report for Latin america and Caribbean countries is available here
